AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL EXPORT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing co-integration approach to empirically examine the impact of agricultural output and agricultural export on economic growth of Nigeria from 1981-2020. Also, the study considers the roles of capital formation and trade openness on economic growth. The empirical results indicate the presence of significant long-run relationship between economic growth, agricultural output, agricultural export, gross fixed capital formation and trade openness in Nigeria. In addition, the results reveal that, agricultural output has significant and positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria, both in the short run and the long run. Agricultural export has negative but significant impact in the short run, but exhibits positive and insignificant impact in the long run. Gross fixed capital formation and trade openness exert significant and negative impact on economic growth in the long run; while gross fixed capital formation has significant impact in the short run, trade openness is not. Based on the findings it is necessary for the government to increase agricultural output, through increased expenditure on export promotion, increased trade openness and capital formation in the country. These will surely result in significant increase in economic growth in Nigeria