Re-evaluation of Non-Oil Exports and Economic Growth in Nigeria
This study on re-evaluation of non-oil exports and economic growth in Nigeria (1991 – 2022) examined with a specific focus on agricultural, manufacturing, and service exports. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, the study investigated the distinct contributions of each export category to Nigeria's economic expansion. The first objective is to estimate the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth, followed by an assessment of manufacturing exports, and lastly, an evaluation of service exports' influence on growth. The findings revealed that agricultural exports have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, suggesting that Nigeria’s agricultural sector is a critical driver of economic expansion. Manufacturing exports, however, showed a positive but statistically insignificant effect, highlighting potential structural barriers that limit the sector's impact on growth. In contrast, service exports exhibit a positive and highly significant impact on economic growth, underscoring the sector's emerging role in Nigeria’s economic diversification efforts. These results indicate that while agricultural and service exports significantly support growth, the manufacturing sector requires additional policy support to enhance its export capacity and contribution to the economy. The study concludes that targeted policy interventions in the non-oil export sectors, particularly in agricultural and service exports, could play a vital role in sustaining Nigeria’s economic growth and reducing dependency on oil exports.